In a surprising turn of events, President Trump’s executive order could potentially disrupt the entrenched four-year cycle of the cryptocurrency market. Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, provides an illuminating analysis of how this political maneuver could reshape digital finance. Traditionally, the crypto market follows a predictable four-year cycle, principally driven by Bitcoin’s halving events. These events, which see BTC miners’ rewards cut in half approximately every four years, often precede significant price rallies. However, Trump’s recent “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology” directive could signal a paradigm shift.

Linking political actions to market dynamics, Hougan speculates that the executive order’s promotion of stablecoins, cessation of regulatory persecution of digital assets, and the potential evaluation of a national crypto reserve could significantly alter the cycle. Such reforms promise long-term impact, which may unfold more gradually than rapid market shifts. Hougan posits, “The downstream effects of this executive order, along with other regulatory changes, may only fully manifest over multiple years, not merely months.”

This disruption prevents a clear prediction on the continuity of the traditional crypto winter projected for 2026. Whereas a potential pullback might still occur due to market exuberance and emerging bad actors, its impact could be less pronounced than in previous cycles. According to Hougan, the maturing crypto space with diversified investors and value-driven agendas might cushion future volatility, bending but not completely breaking the four-year cycle.

As for immediate expectations, Hougan remains optimistic, stating, “For now, it’s full steam ahead. The crypto train is leaving the station.”