In a recent strategy session, renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has sounded alarms for the altcoin market, predicting a potential collapse in the third quarter of 2025. Addressing his substantial YouTube following of 874,000 subscribers, Cowen traces a pattern from previous market cycles, suggesting that altcoins might face a significant downturn in the coming months.

Cowen highlights that altcoins’ trajectories have historically mirrored Bitcoin’s price action. As evidence, he notes that any significant altcoin recovery often aligns with movements in Bitcoin (BTC). He explains, “I think at some point this year, [altcoins are] probably going to break down… Maybe [they’ll] bounce back up later this year, similar to the big move by alt/Bitcoin pairs in 2017, which occurred in November.”

Cowen’s analysis includes the examination of the TOTAL3 index—an indicator tracking the cumulative value of all digital assets, excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins. He posits that if TOTAL3/BTC falls below the 0.27 threshold, a historical signal for market collapse, it could spell a downturn for altcoins. Currently, TOTAL3/BTC rests at 0.47, setting the stage for potential volatility.

The health of altcoins remains intricately tied to Bitcoin’s performance. Cowen points out that BTC leading to a new cycle high could buoy altcoins, whereas a downturn might correlate with a rise in 10-year Treasury yields, signaling broader investor risk appetites.

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,637, marking a 1.3% uptick over the past day. Altcoin investors are advised to proceed cautiously, closely watching Bitcoin and macroeconomic indicators as they navigate what could be a turbulent Q3.

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